A recent UCLA study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters suggests extreme heat waves observed in the Pacific Northwest during the summer of 2021 may not be an accurate representation of upcoming climate trends. According to study author and UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability faculty Karen McKinnon, “Climate models struggle to capture events this extreme, and most early research puts the chances of it occurring at zero.” 

McKinnon, who is also an assistant professor of both statistics and atmospheric and oceanic sciences, set out to determine whether climate models could establish the probability of extreme events such as the heat observed in 2021. By grouping together international locations that are climatologically similar to the Pacific Northwest, the study found that climate models could simulate heat waves comparable to the 2021 event with a probability of them occurring roughly once every 10,000 years.

“We don’t see historical evidence of hot temperatures increasing faster than average temperatures during the early summertime when the heatwave occurred,” said McKinnon. “The 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave appears to be the result of climate change and extraordinarily bad luck with natural variability.”

Read more about the findings of this study at UCLA Newsroom.

Study Authors:

Karen McKinnon, UCLA Departments of Statistics and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability

Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Image Source: Ketut Subiyanto/Pexels