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Karen McKinnon says this year’s El Niño will shift the likelihood of extreme heat

Publication: LAist

UCLA Expert: Karen McKinnon: Assistant Professor, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability; Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics 

Synopsis: It looks like after three years of La Niña, there’s a 90% chance of an El Niño later this year. And a 50% chance that it’ll be a particularly strong one. That said, there’s no guarantee that next winter will be wet. 

UCLA News: “El Niño basically shifts the probability or likelihood of certain types of events,” McKinnon said. “But it’s not deterministic.” Globally, El Niño tends to push temperatures higher than normal as more of the heat that’s in the Earth’s system moves from the ocean to the atmosphere. Add to that the extreme warming already present as a result of climate change, and there's a 98% chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record for the globe, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

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